In early September 2023, Bitcoin miners' activities caught market attention after transferring over 56,000 BTC to the Binance exchange, sparking concerns over potential selling pressure. However, data suggests miners are now favoring over-the-counter transactions.
Current State of Bitcoin
Bitcoin's price currently hovers near $115,000, rebounding significantly from the $110,000 support zone. With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 56, the cryptocurrency maintains positive market momentum. Overcoming the $123,000 resistance could pave the way for a push towards $140,000, although failing to do so may lead to stagnant trading within the current range. Maintaining the $110,000-$112,000 support is thus essential.
Bitcoin Supply Trends
The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio for Bitcoin has risen by 11% to 708,000, illustrating a decline in circulating supply relative to new issuance. Historically, similar trends have been associated with significant value gains for Bitcoin. The increase in this ratio, combined with lower miner outflows, suggests an environment conducive to price growth. However, declining scarcity signals could undermine bullish confidence.
Conclusions and Future Outlook
The current BTC open position-weighted funding rate is slightly positive at 0.0059%, indicating dominance of long positions, albeit at more subdued levels than previous peaks. As high funding rates often precede corrections, this moderate landscape may favor spot purchases. Bitcoin's solid support around the $110,000 mark, especially with recent ETF activity, reflects institutional investors' faith in Bitcoin's potential at these price levels. Decreased selling pressure from miners and robust supply scarcity metrics strengthen market foundations. Nevertheless, the $123,000 resistance remains an obstacle to significant momentum.
Market behavior, particularly regarding miners' preferences for OTC trades or holding, provides insights into future price movements. Trading strategies and market conditions, including maintaining specific price levels, remain critical to future positioning.
