Recent studies suggest that the belief in Bitcoin reaching its market cycle peak by year-end may stem from misunderstandings of statistical principles. Experts are discussing the significance of previous cycles and future prospects.
Expectations for Bitcoin's Peak
Analyst PlanC argues that expecting Bitcoin to peak in the fourth quarter is as speculative as betting on the same side of a coin flip to come up heads four times in a row. He highlights the fallacy of relying solely on patterns observed from past halving cycles, which statistically have limited relevance.
Market Dynamics and New Realities
Discussions among experts indicate that the halving cycle may no longer hold significant relevance for Bitcoin. The increasing investments from Bitcoin treasury companies and U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest a shift in market dynamics. PlanC states there are no fundamental reasons to anticipate a peak in 2025’s fourth quarter, except for psychological factors.
Forecasts for 2026 and Future Developments
Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg suggests a probability of over 50% that Bitcoin might reach between $140,000 to $150,000 this year without entering another bear market. Some experts expect the bull market to continue into 2026, with speculation about Bitcoin hitting $250,000 before year-end.
The disparity of opinions among experts regarding Bitcoin's potential year-end peak underscores the existing uncertainty. Despite traditional analysis cycles, new factors and incoming products may significantly alter established patterns.
