September has historically been a weak month for Ethereum. However, active buyers in 2025 could alter this trend. Let's delve deeper.
Ethereum's September History
Ethereum has shown weak performance in September since its launch. The average return from 2016 is approximately -6.4%, with losses often exceeding 10%. Over the years, only a few Septembers were positive: in 2016, 2019, 2023, and 2024. Specifically, in September 2024, Ethereum gained 3.2% thanks to ETF policy changes and Federal Reserve decisions. Consequently, traders refer to September as the 'September Curse.'
Whale Activity in the Market
A notable signal of potential trend change comes from whale wallets. In the past five months, wallets holding between 1,000 and 100,000 ETH have increased their holdings by about 14%. This indicates that large holders are purchasing more coins even as prices approach record levels. For instance, a single whale recently moved approximately $100 million worth of ETH, reflecting the momentum among major buyers.
Exchange Reserves Status
Simultaneously, Ethereum's reserves on exchanges are nearing cyclical lows. This suggests fewer ETH tokens are available for sale, which can lead to price increases if demand arises. The combination of decreasing supply on exchanges and increased whale buying positions could lessen the likelihood of sudden sell-offs.
In conclusion, September 2025 might mark a critical period for Ethereum. The activity of whales, low exchange reserves, and potential for dip-buying may help overcome the 'September curse' and set the stage for price growth.
