XRP is at a critical level as price movement within a descending triangle reaches its limit. Investors are closely monitoring technical aspects, macroeconomic changes, and ETF expectations.
Technical Setup: Key Moment
On the daily chart, XRP has formed a descending triangle, with sellers gradually pushing lower highs while buyers defend the $2.80 support level. A breakdown beneath this level could expose the next major support zone between $2.60 and $2.50, aligning with the 200-day simple moving average. If bears manage to drive the token even lower, a move toward $1.95–$2.00 cannot be fully dismissed; however, this remains a less likely scenario under current conditions. Conversely, a decisive reclaim of $3 could trigger volatility.
Macroeconomic Factors: Weak Data and Fed Expectations
Macroeconomic data continues to play a central role in crypto’s outlook. The latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls report came in weaker than expected, reinforcing signs of labor market fatigue. Markets now anticipate a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, with growing speculation that the reduction could exceed the typical 25 basis points. Rate cuts typically increase liquidity and ease borrowing conditions, fueling appetite for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
ETF Optimism and Its Impact on XRP
Optimism over an XRP ETF is another major catalyst. Approval odds for October are estimated at roughly 93%. Investors see such a decision as a potential game-changer, as an ETF would allow institutional capital inflows. Currently, there are 15 applications awaiting regulatory approval from the SEC. Speculation around the ETF has already injected energy into the market.
Considering all factors, sentiment around XRP leans bullish. The technical setup suggests a key breakout is near, while ETF anticipation and expectations of Fed rate cuts provide a supportive macro backdrop. However, geopolitical risks and global trade disputes remain wildcards that could test investor resilience.
