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Polymarket Predicts 76% Chance of US Government Shutdown in 2025

Polymarket Predicts 76% Chance of US Government Shutdown in 2025

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by Jesper Sørensen

10 days ago


As the political landscape in the United States becomes increasingly contentious, traders on Polymarket are expressing significant concern over the potential for a government shutdown in 2025. The material draws attention to the fact that with a striking 76% probability assigned to this scenario, the implications for the economy and public services could be profound.

Growing Unease Among Traders

The 76% probability reflects a growing unease among traders regarding political gridlock and budget disputes that are expected to escalate following the 2024 US elections. Experts suggest that the likelihood of partisan battles over appropriations and spending cuts will intensify, raising the risk of a government shutdown if lawmakers cannot reach an agreement.

Consequences of a Government Shutdown

A government shutdown could have far-reaching consequences, affecting millions of Americans by halting federal paychecks, delaying essential services, and creating volatility in financial markets. While these predictions are not definitive, they provide valuable insights into the current sentiment among the public and investors regarding the future of US governance.

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